Record yesterday: 3–1 (+2u)

Kentucky vs Missouri Over 148 (-110) 1 Unit

This total comes down to pace.

Kentucky and Missouri both play around 71–72 possessions per game, which is well above the national average. At that tempo, even average offensive efficiency projects the game into the 150+ range.

Missouri’s defense is another reason the number looks a bit short. They struggle in transition and allow efficient scoring at the rim — exactly where Kentucky thrives when the game speeds up.

I think that these teams could easily push the tempo late in the game if it’s close and help get the over.

TCU +6.5 vs Kansas (-130 1u

Underdogs that rebound well tend to outperform the spread.

TCU ranks among the stronger teams in the conference in offensive rebound rate, which is going to come in handy keeping it close.

This game is also a QUINTESSENTIAL Vegas fade; Kansas is always a public fav and is good for a few extra points in the spread. TCU has been a bit of a sleeper this late into the season as they’ve gone 7-3 their last 10 with wins against Cincy, Texas Tech, and Iowa State.

If Kansas wins, it will come late in the game.

This game profiles as a slow possession battle.

Both teams average roughly 65 possessions per game, which is significantly below the national average. At that pace, the expected scoring range lands closer to 132–134 points.

I expect this game to be a slog fest with neither wanting to take control. Rhode Island averaged just 66 PPG in conference games this season, while the Dukes have struggled recently averaging just 65ppg- a far cry from the 79 ppg they averaged throughout the season.

BYU +9.5 vs Houston (-118)1u

Houston is one of the best defensive teams in the country, but their style creates an interesting spread dynamic. Against the spread, Houston is just 2-6 as double digit favorites in their last 10 games.

They play at one of the slowest tempos in major college basketball, often around 63–64 possessions per game. Fewer possessions make it more difficult for favorites to create large margins.

BYU beat West Virginia handily last night in a low scoring game, but I’m not worried about any hangover carrying into today. The game was never really in question so the idea that they may have tired legs doesn’t weigh too heavily for me. Expect at least a back door cover here and maybe a BYU win if they can get ahead early.

I love the tempo that Ohio State has played with lately and it should make for a fun tournament game this afternoon. Ohio State has averaged 76.8 PPG their last 5 games, including an average of 22 free throws per game. Iowa won the first matchup this season 74-57, but I think a very different OSU team shows up today.

Ohio State’s offensive profile also leans heavily toward perimeter shooting. High-volume three-point teams create scoring runs quickly, which can push totals over even if the game starts slowly.

Iowa has been averaging around 70 possessions per game, which is above the national average and should bode well for the total. It’s not that Ohio State has bad defense, I just think both teams will want to get out and run today. Don’t be surprised if there’s some longer runs and a few back to back 3 pt buckets in transition.

Edited to add: Clemson -1.5 -105 1u